By Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas Economic Counsellor and the Director of Research of the IMF. One-third of the world economy will likely contract this year or next amid shrinking real incomes and rising prices. The global economy continues to face steep challenges, shaped by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a cost-of-living crisis caused by persistent and broadening inflation pressures, and the slowdown in China. Our global growth forecast for this year is unchanged at 3.2%, while our projection for next year is lowered to 2.7%—0.2 percentage points lower than the July forecast. The 2023 slowdown …